[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 December 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 DECEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (17 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm     90    91    94    94   101    99    96
AFr       9     8     1     2     6    12 (  5)
Aaus     15    14     4     6    13    19 (  6)
T        47    36    47    54    53    70    57

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 0631UT on 21
Dec.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Moderate geomagnetic activity observed 17-18 and 22 Dec.
Coronal hole wind stream is believed the source for the activity
17-18 Dec and both coronal hole wind stream and possibly a vague
ejection signature on 22 Dec, but origin unclear.
 
2. FORECAST (24 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low, chance for low level M class flare.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with active intervals possible 26-27 Dec.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 26-Dec,  otherwise MUFs
near normal. Outside chance for shortwave fadeouts.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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