[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 December 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 DECEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (10 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm     85    90    91    90    89    89    90
AFr       8    11    24     8     4     3 (  8)
Aaus     11    12    22    10     9     6 ( 12)
T        60    48    40    32    40    42    45

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.

11 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active, isolated minor storm periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations.

12 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of
      depressions and degradations over the UT day.

13 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions and degradations.

14 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of minor to significant degradations. 

15 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Moderate disturbance observed 12 Dec in association
with a coronal mass ejection.
 
2. FORECAST (17 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:  active intervals expected 17-18 Dec due to a solar
	      coronal hole, then declining to quiet to unsettled
	      levels. Another weak recurrent pattern may induce
	      active periods at the end of the week.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 17-18 Dec,  
	      otherwise MUFs near normal. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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