[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (31 December 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 31 DECEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (24 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER)
Date     24    25    26    27    28    29    30
10cm     97    93    92    97   105    99   100
AFr       2     6     9     6    12    16 ( 11)
Aaus      6    15    11    22    26    30 ( 27)
T        68    92    37    53    65    16    42

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

24 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 0738UT 
on 25 Dec.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

29 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2 at 1627UT, and an M1 at 1920UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M2.2 at 1047UT , and an   M4.2 at 2219UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to active, isolated storm period. 
Automatic systems issued impulse alerts as follows:
(unable to verify at time of issue of the is report, could be noise).
A strong (105nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 0625UT on
30 Dec, and a weak (37nT) impulse was observed at 0710UT on 30 Dec.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: The M2 and M4 events on 30DEC were associated with solar mass
	 ejections, and originated from the same solar region, located at
         N03E47 on the solar disk at 31 Dec. Disturbed conditions reported
         by automatic systems on 30 Dec may not have been as strong as reported.
2. FORECAST (31 DECEMBER - 06 JANUARY)
Solar: Moderate. Active solar region on disk. This region has 
       recently produced two mass ejections, and futher mass ejections are
       possible.

Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled. Minor storm conditions on late 1 to
	      2 Jan due to anticipated arrival of recent solar mass
	      ejections. See Daily reports/Warnings  during week for 
	      any mass ejection induced activity.

Frequencies:  near normal 31 Dec. Depressed MUFs 15-20% expected 02 to 03 Jan.
              otherwise MUFs near normal. Increasing probability of 
	      shortwave fadeouts if solar region development continues.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"