[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 June 03)

Fri Jun 20 11:08:31 EST 2003

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 JUNE 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (13 JUNE - 19 JUNE)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18   19
10cm    151   134   129   123   122   120  123
AFr       8    18    13    20    30    36 ( 23)
Aaus      6    22    17    26    25    29 ( 12)
T        84    84    86    80    84    74   62

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Jun 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3 at 0204UT, an M1/SF at 0437UT, and an M1/SF
at 0645UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

14 Jun 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0609UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,

15 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an X1.3/SF at 2356UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,

16 Jun 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 1200UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly Near predicted monthly values.

17 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an M6.8 at 2255UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-20% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed.

18 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an M6.8 at 2255UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Major Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

19 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15-20% local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

COMMENT: Disturbed conditions observed second half of week.
Disturbances induced by both coronal mass ejections and coronal
hole high speed wind streams. Two strong flares were observed this week, 
an X1.3 on 15 Jun and an M6.8 on 17 Jun.  Flares both originated from 
solar region 386 located in the south-east solar quadrant. A glancing
blow from the X1 flare/mass ejection was observed in the solar wind
at 0429UT on 18 Jun. A very weak shock may arrive from the M6.8 flare
first half of the UT day on 20 Jun. Effects of mass ejections reduced
due to this regions currently eastward location on the solar disk.
Any further mass ejections from this region would be more geoeffective
as it rotates further around the solar disk. However, development in 
this region appears to have slowed over past 24 hours, with a possible 
easing in magnetic complexity.  A weak proton event was observed 2050UT 
18 Jun to 1540UT on 19 Jun following the M6.8 flare. This event 
may have caused increased absorption on trans polar HF circuits. 
The Earth entered a solar wind high speed stream second half of 
18 Jun and elevated wind speed conditions are expected to persist 
next 3 to 6 days, due to sequence of coronal holes in southern 
solar hemisphere.

2. FORECAST (20 JUNE - 26 JUNE)
Solar: Moderate (solar regions 386 and 387),  chance of isolated 
major flare from 386. Activity predominately dependant on evolution
of region 386. Also, a previously very active solar region
(SEC number 375) is due to return to the solar disk on 27 Jun.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly active, isolated Minor storm intervals possible,
due to coronal hole high speed wind streams. 
Chance for further coronal mass ejection activity from solar 
region 386 and possibly from region 387 if it continues to develop.

Frequencies:  Mid to low latitudes (Northern Aus/PNG region) are 
expected to be near predicted monthly values. Mid to high latitudes 
(Southern Aus/NZ) are expected to be 15% depressed to near predicted 
monthly values. Depressions are mostly expected local night hours and after 
local dawn.  Isolated SWFs expected.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.