[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 JUNE 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (20 JUNE - 26 JUNE)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm    117   115   110   114   115   116   119
AFr      10    16    11    15    20    14 ( 15)
Aaus     10    18    13    13    20    16 ( 17)
T        62    72    67    67    92    72    80

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at 0838UT on 20
Jun.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values 
      during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15%  to near normal.

21 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Briefly depressed by 15% after local dawn,
      then mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near normal.

22 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values, 
      some spread F observed,

23 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.

24 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Jun 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed

26 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

COMMENT:Elevated geomagnetic activity observed during
second half of week due to coronal hole high speed wind
streams.
 
2. FORECAST (27 JUNE - 03 JULY)
Solar: Low to Moderate, with the chance for high activity. A 
previously very active solar region is returning to the solar 
north-east limb (12 degrees north). If this region has not 
significantly decayed during its solar backside transit then 
increased flare activity can be expected during the week. 
A large equatorial coronal hole is visible in SEC Solar Xray 
Imager data. The Earth entered the high speed wind stream 
from this large coronal hole at 12 UT on 26 June. Elevated 
solar wind conditions may persist for most of the week.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly active with Active to Minor storm 
intervals possible.  Expected activity induced by coronal hole wind
stream. Note that there is a chance for coronal mass ejection (CME)
induced storm activity this week, if returning region is 
flare/CME active.

Frequencies:  Mildly depressed after local dawn southern Aus 
region during period. Local night degradation likely. Northern
Aus region MUFS expected to remain near to 15% above IPS 
predicted monthly values.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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