[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 JUNE 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (06 JUNE - 12 JUNE)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    126   133   153   158   177   193   164
AFr      10    26    21    20    19    10 ( 12)
Aaus     11    14    19    20    13     9 (  4)
T        67    68    69    84    79    89    84

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Jun 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 2338UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of intense daytime sporadic-E.
      Extended periods of spread-F conditions.


07 Jun 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night/after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


08 Jun 
Solar:        moderate, with an M4/2N at 1611UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
              A weak (19nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
              magnetomter data at 1057UT on 08 Jun.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of localised disturbance.


09 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an M4/1N at 1128UT, an X1.7 at 2139UT, and
              an M1 at 2231UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Exteneded periods of disturbance. Widespread spread-F
      conditions observed. Absorption around local dawn.


10 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an M2/1N at 0254UT, an M2/1N at 0837UT,
an M5.1/2N at 1112UT, an M2 at 1300UT, an M2/SF at 1436UT,
an M1/SF at 1624UT, an M3 at 1630UT, an M5.6 at 1815UT,
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Mild overnight depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Isolated overnight depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance. Spread-F conditions
      observed at all stations. 


11 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an X1.3/2B at 0002UT, an M1/SF at 0306UT,
an M1/SF at 1033UT, an M1 at 1109UT, an M2 at 1321UT, an M3/SF at 1527UT,
an M4 at 1636UT, an M1/1F at 1743UT, an X1.6/1N at 2014UT,
and an M2/SF at 2151UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


12 Jun 
Solar:        high, with an M7.3/1N at 0130UT , an M2.9/SF at 2151UT ,
and an M1.1/SF at 1712UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


 
2. FORECAST (13 JUNE - 19 JUNE)
Solar: Moderate to high

Geomagnetic: Mostly unsettled with active and possible minor storm preiods.

Frequencies: Mild depressions possible at times otherwise mostly normal.
SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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