[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (06 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 06 JUNE 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (30 MAY - 05 JUNE)
Date     30    31    01    02    03    04    05
10cm    117   113   112   121   115   106   114
AFr      36    18    18    22    19    13 ( 10)
Aaus     30    12    12    23    18    15 ( 11)
T        24    66    57    81    65    69    55

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

30 May 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
	      A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS 
	      magnetomter data at 1625UT on 30 May.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.


31 May 
Solar:        High, with an M9.3/2B at 0224UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near normal local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed, absorption observed early in UT day.



01 Jun 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1 at 0306UT, an M1 at 
	      1250UT, an M1/SF at 1652UT, and an M1 at 2105UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Initially depressed 15-20% then recovering as day
      progressed,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and some absorption observed.


02 Jun 
Solar:        High, with an M6.5/SF at 0022UT, an M3/SF at 
	      0837UT, and an M1/SF at 1733UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values,
      spread F and some absorption observed.


03 Jun 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed, spread F and absorption observed.


04 Jun 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


05 Jun 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with 
      isolated extended periods of disturbance.



 
2. FORECAST (06 JUNE - 12 JUNE)
Solar:        Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Mostly unsettled to active with active to minor 
	      storm intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Depressed 15% on 07-10 Jun, mildy depressed after 
	      local dawn on 11-12 Jun, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
	      SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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