[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (14 September 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (07 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Sep   11      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with significant degradations

08 Sep   22      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values for short
      periods with severe degradations.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

09 Sep   24      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Sep   26      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 60% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

11 Sep   25      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

12 Sep    6      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

13 Sep   17      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Less data availabe over the UT day.
      Strong degradations observed. 

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24
2. FORECAST (14 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: mild to moderate depressions on 14 and 16 September, moderate
	to strong depressions possible on 15 September, MUFs near 
	predicted monthly values on other days.
Propagation conditions: Normal to fair on 14,16 and 20 September, 
	Fair to poor on 15 September, otherwise mostly normal. 
	SWfs probable during almost this whole period. 
T index:   20
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 13 September 
	and is current for interval  13-14 September. 
3. OUTLOOK (21 SEPTEMBER - 21 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
21, 27, 29 and 30 September; 02, 06, 09 to 11, 17 and 18 October.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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