[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (23 October 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (14 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
        Australian Region*              
 Date     K-INDICES    A               
 14 Oct   2343 5455   29     
 15 Oct   3455 4333   26     
 16 Oct   3235 3333   18    
 17 Oct   2444 4224   19    
 18 Oct   3443 4323   18    
 19 Oct   2344 4443   21    
 20 Oct   2233 3434   16    
 21 Oct   3343 5444   25    
 22 Oct   3344 4433   21    

*estimated from real time data

Disturbed conditions at start and end of week due
to coronal hole high speed wind streams. The Earth
has just left the current coronal hole wind stream and 
relatively quiet conditions are expected for today.
However, an Earth directed near complete halo coronal mass
ejection was observed at 0754UT on 22 Oct and storm
conditions are now expected starting on 24 Oct and
possibly extending to 25 Oct.

2. FORECAST (23 OCTOBER - 22 NOVEMBER)
Disturbed Periods: 
 24-25 Oct: Impulse expected first half UT day 24 Oct. Then Active 
	    to minor storm, isolated major storm periods possible.
 31 Oct Active (27 day recurrnce)
 10-18  Nov active, with minor storm periods (27 day recurrence)

Note: Two large solar regions are very flare capable and 
there is a good chance for strong solar mass ejection
events this week. Solar flare/mass ejections cannot be
forecast in advance and IPS provides the Geomagnetic
Warning service for notification of anticpated 
CME induced geomagnetic activity once the mass ejection 
has been observed and is considered Earth directed.


Best Quiet Periods: 
26 Oct to 28 Oct (assuming no solar mass ejections)
06-08 Nov


PLEASE NOTE:  
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions 
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not 
able to be forecasted a week in advance. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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