[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (23 October 03)
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 10:47:00 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 23 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (14 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
Date K-INDICES A
14 Oct 2343 5455 29
15 Oct 3455 4333 26
16 Oct 3235 3333 18
17 Oct 2444 4224 19
18 Oct 3443 4323 18
19 Oct 2344 4443 21
20 Oct 2233 3434 16
21 Oct 3343 5444 25
22 Oct 3344 4433 21
*estimated from real time data
Disturbed conditions at start and end of week due
to coronal hole high speed wind streams. The Earth
has just left the current coronal hole wind stream and
relatively quiet conditions are expected for today.
However, an Earth directed near complete halo coronal mass
ejection was observed at 0754UT on 22 Oct and storm
conditions are now expected starting on 24 Oct and
possibly extending to 25 Oct.
2. FORECAST (23 OCTOBER - 22 NOVEMBER)
24-25 Oct: Impulse expected first half UT day 24 Oct. Then Active
to minor storm, isolated major storm periods possible.
31 Oct Active (27 day recurrnce)
10-18 Nov active, with minor storm periods (27 day recurrence)
Note: Two large solar regions are very flare capable and
there is a good chance for strong solar mass ejection
events this week. Solar flare/mass ejections cannot be
forecast in advance and IPS provides the Geomagnetic
Warning service for notification of anticpated
CME induced geomagnetic activity once the mass ejection
has been observed and is considered Earth directed.
Best Quiet Periods:
26 Oct to 28 Oct (assuming no solar mass ejections)
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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