[Ips-wgr] IPS Weekly Geo. Report (30 October 03)
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 12:21:22 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 30 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (21 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER)
K indices are in UT (0-24). For conversion to local time:
AEST = UT + 10 hours; ACST = UT + 9.5 hours; AWST = UT + 8 hours
Date K-INDICES A
21 Oct 3343 5444 25
22 Oct 3344 4433 21
23 Oct 4232 1112 9
24 Oct 2233 4756 42 A moderate (74nT) impulse was observed
in the IPS magnetomter data at 1525UT on 24 Oct.
25 Oct 5333 5413 23
26 Oct 1223 2243 11 A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in
the IPS magnetomter data at 1909UT on 26 Oct.
27 Oct 2332 1313 10
28 Oct 3334 2334 17
29 Oct 4687 8787 155 A strong (139nT) impulse was observed
in the IPS magnetomter data at 0611UT on 29 Oct.
*estimated from real time data
The period started with geomagnetic activity at Unsettled
to Minor Storm levels on 21 October due to a coronal hole
effect. The geomagnetic activity then gradually decreased
during the next 2 days and it was at Quiet to Active level
on 23 October. The geomagnetic activity rose from Quiet to
Severe storm level on 24 October due to the effect of a CME.
The activity then gradually decreased during the next four
days and it went down to Quiet to Active levels on 28 October.
The activity again rose to Active to Severe storm level on
29 October due to the arrival of a spectacular full halo CME
associated with the X17 flare that was observed on 28 October.
2. FORECAST (30 OCTOBER - 29 NOVEMBER)
Disturbed Periods: 30 to 31 Oct, 1 Nov, 3 Nov, 9 to 18 Nov,
20 Nov, 26 Nov
Best Quiet Periods: 4 to 8 Nov, 19 Nov, 22 Nov, 27 to 29 Nov.
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
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