[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 04 February - issued 2314UT/03-Feb-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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On UT day 04-Feb solar activity is expected to be R1, with isolated R2
flare activity possible. The chance of solar flare activity has
increased in the past 24 hours due to a developing on disk solar
region and a new region currently rotating onto the solar disk. The
background solar X-ray flux has increased in the past 24 hours. The
solar wind speed is expected to be initially light, increasing to
moderate over 04-05 Feb due to a combination of an anticipated CME
arrival and a coronal hole wind stream. A subsequent mild to moderate
increase in geomagnetic activity is expected 04-05 Feb with G0-G1
conditions with the chance of G2 periods expected during this
interval. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
initially normal for 04-Feb, then becoming fair for the southern
Australian region, with degraded HF communication conditions expected
during local night hours tonight. Maximum usable frequencies are
initially expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced, with 15% depressions possible on 05-Feb for the southern
Australian region. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au