[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 17 September - issued 2331UT/16-Sep-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Solar activity on UT day 17-Sep is expected to be at R0-R1 level, as a
solar region has greatly decreased in magnetic complexity over the
last 24 hours. A large solar filament has erupted from the Sun. The
solar wind speed is expected to be light to moderate for today. A
solar wind shock from the filament eruption is expected late in the UT
day on 18-Sep. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly G0,
with a slight chance of G1 periods for today. Geomagnetic G2, with the
chance of G3 conditions are now expected from late 18-Sep and on
19-Sep due to the filament eruption/CME. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal for today. Depressed and
degraded HF conditions are expected 19-20 Sep due to the anticipated
geomagnetic storm activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au