[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 16 September - issued 2315UT/15-Sep-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Solar activity on UT day 16-Sep is expected to be at R1 level, with
the chance of an R2 flare. A solar region has increased is magnetic
complexity. The solar wind speed is expected to be initially light to
moderate, then increasing to moderate to strong sometime during the
interval from late 16-Sep to mid 17-Sep due to a recent CME.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly G0, with the
increasing chance of G1 periods late in the UT day. G1 conditions with
the chance of G2 periods are expected for 17-Sep. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal, then becoming fair on
17-Sep. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for the Australian region
are expected to be near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions of
15% are possible over 17-18 Sep for the southern Australian region, if
the anticipated geomagnetic activity eventuates. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are expected.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au