[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 18 September - issued 2311UT/17-Sep-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

Solar activity on UT day 18-Sep is expected to be at R0-R1 level, with
the chance of an isolated R2 event from a solar region that has
recently rotated onto the solar disk. A large solar filament has
erupted from the Sun on 16-Sep. The solar wind speed is generally
expected to be light to moderate for today. A solar wind shock from
the filament eruption is expected from late in the UT day on 18-Sep to
middle of the UT day 19-Sep. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
mostly G0, with a slight chance of G1 periods very late in the UT day.
Geomagnetic G2, with the chance of G3 conditions are expected on
19-Sep due to the filament eruption/CME. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal for today. Depressed and
degraded HF conditions are expected 19-20 Sep due to the anticipated
geomagnetic storm activity, with the ionospheric depression response
more likely on 20-Sep. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au