[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 15 January - issued 0443UT/15-Jan-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

A double peak R1 flare has been observed on 14-Jan, an M3.5 at 14/2021
and M4.6 at 14/2100UT. The twin flares were from solar region
AR3182(S18W46). An R2 flare (M6.0) has been observed from solar region
AR3191(N15E55) at 15/0349UT with an associated HF fadeout in the
Australian region. The CMEs associated withe M3.5 and M4.6 flares on
14-Jan appear to be slow and more westward directed with event
modelling showing only a weak arrival on 19-Jan, and no following
solar proton flux enhancement has been observed. Solar activity on UT
day 15-Jan is expected to be at R1, with the chance for further R2
events. The solar wind speed is expected to be initially moderate then
light. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for today. Australian
region maximum usable frequencies are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au