[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 15 January - issued 2154UT/14-Jan-2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

A double peak M3.5 (at 14/2021) and M4.6 (at 14/2100UT) flare has been
observed. The twin flares were from AR3182(S18W46) and due to this
regions location and the flare profile an enhancement in the solar
proton flux may follow the flare activity, possibly reaching the S1
level. Solar activity on UT day 15-Jan is expected to be at R1, with
the chance of an R2 event. The solar wind speed is expected to be
initially moderate then light. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
for today. It is possible that a coronal mass ejection has occurred
with this mornings flare activity. Australian region maximum usable
frequencies are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. A fadeout was observed at Niue in association with the flare
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au