[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 02 October - issued 2352UT/01-Oct-2015

[rwc]

Active Region 2422, the source of most recent M class flares, is
rotating toward the south west limb and is no longer in a geoeffective
location. It produced the strongest flare of 01 Oct UT, an M4.5 event
peaking at 13:10 UT. It will probably produce more M class flares as
it rotates beyond the limb. The Earth is still immersed in slow solar
wind with a speed of about 350 km/s. A transition region between slow
solar wind and fast solar wind is expected to arrive at Earth late
today, 02 Oct, or during the first half of 03 Oct. The arrival of this
disturbance with subsequent fast wind may trigger minor geomagnetic
storms. The two massive CMEs launched toward the west during 30 Sep
are not Earthward directed but a glancing blow is possible commencing
late 03 Oct or early 04 Oct. A moderate geomagnetic storm might occur
if the massive CMEs impact Earth immediately following the arrival of
the fast wind wind. Aurora watchers located in Tasmania and southern
Victoria should monitor conditions this weekend in case the conditions
become more severe than expected. Conditions for HF radio wave
propagation will be depressed to near normal during the next 2-3
days.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.