[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 03 October - issued 2336UT/02-Oct-2015

[rwc]

Active Region 2422 produced a short duration M5.5 flare peaking at
00:13 UT, two M1.0 flares, and at least eleven C class flares during
02 Oct UT. AR 2422 will soon disappear beyond the south west limb.
Solar flare activity will then decline to low levels. The Earth is
still immersed in slow solar wind with a speed of about 360 km/s. A
transition region between slow solar wind and fast solar wind is
expected to arrive at Earth today, 03 Oct. The effects of this
disturbance may be compounded by the arrival of a glancing blow from
the bright CMEs launched toward the west on 30 Sep. If these CMEs do
impact Earth, they are expected to arrive during 04 Oct. A minor
geomagnetic storm is likely during 03-04 Oct. Aurora watchers located
in Tasmania and southern Victoria should monitor conditions this
weekend in case they become more severe than expected. Conditions for
HF radio wave propagation will be depressed to near normal during the
next 2-3 days.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.