[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 01 October - issued 2347UT/30-Sep-2015

[rwc]

Solar activity was moderate during 30 Sep UT. Gigantic Active Region
2422 produced two weak M class solar flares. This region is
magnetically complex and a strong M class or weak X class flare is
still possible. However, the region is approaching the south west limb
and any associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is unlikely to be
Earthward directed. The two massive CMEs observed expanding toward the
north west and the south west during 30 Sep are not Earthward
directed. The Earth is presently immersed in slow solar wind with a
speed of about 300 km/s and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
quiet today, 1 Oct. A transition region between slow and fast solar
wind is expected to arrive during 2-3 Oct and drive unsettled to
active geomagnetic conditions. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible.
Conditions for HF radio wave propagation have been mixed, slightly
depressed to normal at some mid-latitude locations, yet moderately
depressed at others.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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