[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 16 March - issued 2345UT/15-Mar-2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 16 10:46:00 EST 2015

Solar activity was moderate during Mar 15. Active Region 2297 produced
the major event of the day, a long-lived and spatially extensive C9.1
X ray flare peaking at 02:13 UT. A long duration M class flare is in
progress at the time of this report and will be covered in a
subsequent report. AR 2297 is still magnetically complex and will
probably produce more M class flares during the next 48 hours. AR 2297
was located in a geoeffective region at the time of the major C9.1
flare. Learmonth H alpha solar telescope observations showed the lift
off of multiple structures associated with this event. Culgoora solar
radio telescope observations showed a Type II event indicating the
expansion of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) through the solar corona.
SOHO coronagraph observations showed an initial slow CME propagating
toward the south south west followed by a fast partial halo CME
directed toward north west; the second CME overtook the first. A
computer model of the solar wind predicts the arrival of disturbances
at Earth between the middle of Mar 17 and early Mar 18. Geomagnetic
conditions may reach minor storm levels commencing late Mar 17,
continuing into Mar 18. Aurora enthusiasts should track space weather
conditions in case of a significant geomagnetic storm. Conditions for
HF radio propagation have been near normal and are expected to remain
near normal today.

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