[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 13 March - issued 2342UT/12-Mar-2015

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 13 10:42:57 EST 2015

Solar activity has been high due to the magnetic complexity of Active
Region 2297. This region produced ten C class flares and five M class
flares during Mar 11 UT. The largest flare of the day was a M4.2 event
peaking at 14:08 UT. Further M class flares and a X class are possible
during the next 48 hours. AR 2297 will rotate across the central
meridian into a more geoeffective location during the next 24 hours.
The availability of SOHO spacecraft observations of the corona has
been patchy recently, and it has not been possible to determine the
direction and width of the CME associated with the X2.1 flare of Mar
11, or of any CME possibly associated with the numerous M class flares
during Mar 11-12. However, because AR 2297 was located just east of
the central meridian, a component of the CME associated with the X2.1
flare could be Earthward directed. The glancing blow of an earlier CME
predicted to arrive late Mar 12 may still arrive at Earth early today,
Mar 13. The 4-day outlook is for active geomagnetic conditions due to
the possible impact of several CMEs. There is also the possibility of
a minor geomagnetic storm this weekend. Aurora watchers should stay
tuned for updates on increased geomagnetic activity. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be normal to enhanced at
mid-latitudes in the Australian region during Mar 13.

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