[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 12 March - issued 2347UT/11-Mar-2015

[rwc]

Solar activity has been high due to the magnetic complexity of Active
Region 2297. This region produced thirteen C class flares, four M
class flares and one X class flare during Mar 11 UT. The largest flare
of the day, a X2.1 event, peaked at 16:22 UT. Solar radio telescopes
recorded a strong radio frequency burst at a wavelength of 10 cm;
bursts of this kind can cause transient interference in sensitive
electronic equipment. Cerro Tololo GONG H alpha telescope images show
chromospheric ejecta directed toward the east. This ground-based
observation indicates the launch of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).
SOHO spacecraft coronograms are not available at the time of this
report. AR 2297, the launch site of the CME, is still located east of
the geo-effective zone. However, the CME will likely impact Earth in
2-3 days time and increase geomagnetic activity. AR 2297 launched
another CME early on Mar 10. Computer modeling of the solar wind
suggests a glancing blow from this CME commencing late today, Mar 12.
Aurora watchers should stay tuned for updates on increased geomagnetic
activity, including a possible minor geomagnetic storm, during Mar
12-15. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal to
enhanced at mid-latitudes in the Australian region during Mar 12. The
conditions may be strongly enhanced at low latitude locations.

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