[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 11 March - issued 2331UT/10-Mar-2015

[rwc]

Active Region 2297 produced two strong M class X ray flares and nine C
class flares during the previous 24 hours. The largest event was a M
5.8 flare peaking at 23:53 UT on Mar 09. This was followed by a M 5.1
flare peaking at 03:24 UT on Mar 10. Solar radio telescopes recorded
strong radio frequency bursts at a wavelength of 10 cm; these bursts
may cause transient interference in some devices. Learmonth (Western
Australia) optical and radio telescopes detected Coronal Mass
Ejections (CMEs) associated with the two M class flares. SOHO
spacecraft observations of the solar corona subsequently confirmed
that partial halo CMEs were ejected toward the north east of the
visible disk. Computer modeling of the solar wind suggests a possible
glancing blow of a CME commencing at about 12 UT on Mar 12.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet today, Mar 11,
because of light solar wind conditions. However, they will become
unsettled to active if the CME impacts Earth during Mar 12-13. HF
radio propagation conditions are expected to be normal to enhanced at
mid-latitudes in the Australian region during Mar 11. The conditions
may be strongly enhanced at low latitude locations.

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