[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 04 October - issued 2346UT/03-Oct-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 4 09:46:01 EST 2014


Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Oct 3. Active Regions (ARs)
2172 and 2173 produced six C class flares. AR 2173 produced the
largest flare of the day, a C9.0 event peaking at 06:48 UT. Because
these regions are rotating beyond the western limb, and the remaining
visible sunspot groups are fairly stable, solar flare activity is
expected to be low during the next 48 hours. AR 2173 launched an
intense Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) off the south east limb in
association with the M7.3 flare peaking at 19:02 UT on Oct 2. This CME
will not impact Earth. There are no other Earthward directed CMEs. The
two major dark filaments previously visible in GONG Hydrogen alpha
images are now rotating around the western limb. They will provide a
real treat for people with access to small solar H alpha telescopes
today. The solar wind speed is presently about 330 km/s. Geomagnetic
conditions were quiet during Oct 3 and they are expected to remain
quiet today. HF radio propagation conditions were enhanced throughout
the Australian region during Oct 2. They are expected to remain
enhanced today.

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