[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 03 October - issued 2344UT/02-Oct-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 3 09:44:09 EST 2014


Solar X-ray flare activity was high during Oct 2. Active Region (AR)
2172 produced an M1.5 flare peaking at 17:44 UT. Adjacent AR 2173
subsequently produced the largest flare of the day, an M7.3 event
peaking at 19:02 UT. Hydrogen alpha solar telescopes showed complex
structures lifting off in associated with these flares. However, AR
2172 and AR 2173 are located close to the western limb and any Coronal
Mass Ejection (CME) is unlikely to have a major impact on Earth. The
48 hour outlook is for solar flare activity to decline toward low
activity. Returning AR 2164 may reverse the trend in coming days. The
solar wind speed is presently about 380 km/s and there are no
Earthward directed CMEs. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct
2 and are expected to be quiet with possible unsettled intervals
during the next 48 hours. HF radio propagation conditions were
enhanced at low latitude and East Australia stations during Oct 2.
Propagation conditions are expected to be enhanced to strongly
enhanced during Oct 3.

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