[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 02 October - issued 2334UT/01-Oct-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 2 09:34:59 EST 2014


Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Oct 1. Active Region (AR)
2172 is located near the western limb and produced the largest flare
of the day, a C6.7 event peaking at 03:06 UT. The flare forecast for
Oct 2 is for low to moderate activity. There is a decreasing chance of
an M class flare during the next 48 hours. The two major dark
filaments (solar prominences) visible in GONG Hydrogen alpha images
have remained stable. The filament located in the Northern Hemisphere
has begun to rotate around the western limb. There are no Earthward
directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The solar wind speed is
presently about 360 km/s. The z-component of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) has been fluctuating with intervals of southward
bias. Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled though trending
toward quiet. HF radio propagation conditions were enhanced to
strongly enhanced at low latitudes during Oct 1. Conditions are
expected to be mildly enhanced at mid latitudes and enhanced to
strongly enhanced at low latitudes.

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