[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 01 October - issued 2357UT/30-Sep-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 1 09:57:28 EST 2014

Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Sep 30. Active Region (AR)
2173 produced the largest flare of the day, a C2.4 event peaking at
04:44 UT. There are 10 named ARs on the visible solar disk. The
magnetic complexity of some ARs suggests an M class flare may occur
today. The two major dark filaments (solar prominences) visible in
GONG H alpha images are rotating out of the geoeffective zone. The
3-day outlook is for moderate solar activity declining toward low
activity. There are no Earthward directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs). The solar wind speed is presently about 400 km/s. The
z-component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been
fluctuating with persistent southward bias driving intervals of
unsettled geomagnetic activity. HF radio propagation conditions have
been enhanced at mid-latitudes and strongly enhanced at low latitudes.
They are expected to remain enhanced at all regions.

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