[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 05 October - issued 2332UT/04-Oct-2014

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 5 10:32:15 EST 2014


Solar X-ray flare activity was low during Oct 4 and it is expected to
be low during Oct 5. Active Regions (ARs) 2172 and 2173 have rotated
out of view and the background X ray flux declined to the B4 level. AR
2178 produced the largest solar flare of Oct 4, a C1.7 event peaking
at 01:02 UT. Solar Hydrogen alpha telescopes will reveal two large
solar prominences on the western limb this morning. The solar wind
speed near Earth increased from about 320 km/s to 420 km/s during Oct
4. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) increased
to about 15 nT at 18 UT. The z-component of the IMF has been mostly
northward, but it may develop a southward bias later today.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet during Oct 4, but they are expected
to become unsettled today. A minor geomagnetic storm is possible. HF
radio propagation conditions were enhanced to strongly enhanced
throughout the Australian region during Oct 4. They are expected to
remain enhanced today.

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