[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 22 June - issued 0011UT/22-Jun-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 22 10:11:55 EST 2013

Solar Active Region 1777 located on the south east limb generated a
M2.9 X-ray flare with maximum output at 03:14 UT on June 21 and may
produce another M-class flare today, 22 June. The flare was visible as
a spectacular event in small H alpha solar telescopes. Any coronal
mass ejection associated with the flare is unlikely to have a major
impact on the Earth because of AR 1777's location on the south east
limb. Expect low to moderate activity today with active regions 1777,
1776, 1775, 1772 all capable of producing flares. The large coronal
hole located in the northern hemisphere is still traversing the
central meridian. A high speed solar wind stream has arrived at Earth
and geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettle in the
Australian region with isolated active cases at high latitudes.
Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15% above monthly
predicted values during June 21 and the 3 day outlook is for
continuing enhanced support due to increasing solar EUV flux. Short
wave radio fadeouts are possible due to the increase in solar
activity. High-frequency radio communications normal.

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