[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 21 June - issued 0424UT/21-Jun-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 21 14:24:13 EST 2013

Update: Solar Active Region 1777 located on the south east limb
recently generated a M2.9 X-ray flare with maximum output at 03:14 UT
on June 21. The flare is still in progress, slowly declining in
output. The flare was visible as a spectacular event in small H alpha
solar telescopes. Any coronal mass ejection associated with the flare
is unlikely to have a major impact on the Earth because of AR 1777's
location on the south east limb. Some of the solar active regions
responsible for recent lesser flares are rotating through the
geoeffective zone. Another M class solar flare is possible during the
next 3 days. The large coronal hole located in the northern hemisphere
is still traversing the central meridian. A high speed solar wind
stream has arrived at Earth and geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be active at high latitudes. There is a possibility of a minor
geomagnetic storm during the next 48 hours and aurora watchers located
in Tasmania are advised to review geomagnetic conditions late today.
Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15% above monthly
predicted values during June 20 and the 3 day outlook is for
continuing enhanced support due to increasing solar EUV flux. Short
wave radio fadeouts are possible during the next 3 days.

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