[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 21 June - issued 2357UT/20-Jun-2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 21 09:57:39 EST 2013

The Sun has been crackling with numerous strong B class and weak C
class solar X ray flares. The strongest event of the day was a C1.9
event with maximum at 09:20 UT from Active Region 1777 located on the
south east limb. Some of the solar active regions responsible for the
lesser flares are rotating through the geoeffective zone. A
significant M class solar flare is possible during the next 48 hours.
The strong CME leaving the south east limb of the Sun at 13 UT will
not be geoeffective. The large coronal hole located in the northern
hemisphere is traversing the central meridian. A high speed solar wind
stream has arrived at Earth and geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be active at high latitudes. There is a possibility of a minor
geomagnetic storm during the next 48 hours and aurora watchers located
in Tasmania are advised to review geomagnetic conditions late today.
Ionospheric support for HF propagation was near to 15% above monthly
predicted values during June 20 and the 3 day outlook is for
continuing enhanced support due to increasing solar EUV flux. A short
wave radio fadeout is possible during the next 3 days.

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