[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 146/100 144/98 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-May was at R0 level, with
several low-level C-class flares. Regions AR3010 (S14W87, alpha),
AR3011 (N14W71, beta), AR3014 (N22W66, beta) and AR3017 (N14W40,
alpha) are responsible for majority of the flaring activity.
AR3014 has decreased in area and magnetic complexity. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 25-27 May, with a very slight
chance of R2 level. Several CMEs were observed, but none are
considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 24-May
continued a declining trend, and is currently near 380 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3
to -3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be near background
levels on 25-May, after which time it is expected to increase
due to coronal hole effects over 26-27 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: G0
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Gingin 1 11101000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22211000
Mawson 7 13102104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2132 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 5 G0
26 May 15 G0
27 May 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 24-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 25-27 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 25-27 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 80 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 May 80 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 May 80 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22
May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24-May were near monthly predicted values to
moderately enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1100-2100UT.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to moderately enhanced during 25-27 May. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 373000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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