[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 26 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1824UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 136/90 132/86 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-May was at R1 level, with
a M1.3 flare from AR3016 (S19W42, alpha) at 25/1824. All other
flaring was of low-level C-class, originating from AR3019 (N10W09,
alpha). Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 26-28
May, with a very slight chance of R2 level. A total of five large
CMEs were observed, visible in the LASCO C2 imagery starting
from the following times: 24/2312UT (NE), 25/0400UT (SW), 25/0548UT
(NE), 25/1200UT (SE) and 25/1836UT (SW). The three eastern events
all occurred beyond the limb, and are not considered to be geoeffective.
The two southwestern events originate from the same source: a
filament located in the southwest quadrant. The filament ejected
some mass to produce the 25/0400UT CME, visible in the H-alpha
imagery from 25/0124UT (S30W30). It later erupted completely,
such that the filament was no longer visible in the H-alpha imagery,
starting from 25/1817UT (S20W40). Model runs indicate a weak
glancing blow to Earth from late 27-May. The solar wind speed
on 25-May was near background levels, and is currently near 382
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -5 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 0640-0730UT.
The solar wind speed may possibly increase due to coronal hole
effects over 26-28 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: G0
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12210021
Darwin 2 12110011
Learmonth 3 12210021
Alice Springs 3 02210021
Gingin 4 12210121
Canberra 2 12110011
Hobart 2 11110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 2 02120001
Casey 4 22211021
Mawson 10 43321121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 12 G0
27 May 20 G0
28 May 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 25-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 26-28 May. There
is a chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions from late
27-May due to a possible glancing blow from CMEs first observed
on 25-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 26-28 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
27 May 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
28 May 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 25-May were
near monthly predicted values to moderately enhanced. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during 1200-2100UT. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted values to moderately enhanced
during 26-28 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 92700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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