[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 23 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 24 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 156/110 154/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-May was at R0 level, with
several low-level C-class flares. Regions AR3017 (N14W27, alpha)
and AR3019 (N11E16, alpha) are responsible for majority of the
flaring activity. AR3017 has decayed in both spot count and magnetic
complexity; AR3014 (N22W53, beta-gamma-delta) remains the most
complex region, with the potential to produce M-class flares
and a slight chance of X-class flares, although it has decreased
in spot count. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels
on 24-26 May, with a slight chance of R2 level. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on 23-May was mildly elevated with a declining
trend, ranging from 442-556 km/s, and is currently near 476 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5
to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease
slightly over 24-26 May, although there is a chance that it may
remain slightly elevated from early 24-May due to a possible
mild CME impact from a CME first observed on 20-May. Additionally,
coronal hole effects are expected to influence the solar wind
speed from 26-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: G0
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11220000
Darwin 2 11220000
Learmonth 3 12220000
Alice Springs 2 01220000
Gingin 2 12210000
Canberra 2 11220000
Hobart 2 10220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00330000
Casey 5 23320000
Mawson 12 43431210
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 4342 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 8 G0
25 May 8 G0
26 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 23-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 24-26 May. There
is a slight chance of increased geomagnetic conditions from early
24-May due to a possible mild CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 24-26 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 85 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 May 85 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 May 85 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22
May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 23-May were near monthly predicted values to
moderately enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during 1300-2100UT.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to moderately enhanced during 24-26 May. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 264000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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