[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 22 issued 2343 UT on 22 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 23 09:43:30 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT - CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 May 24 May 25 May
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 163/117 162/116
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-May was at R0 level, with
several low-level C-class flares. Regions AR3014 (N22W38, beta-gamma-delta)
and AR3017 (N14W12, beta) are responsible for majority of the
flaring activity. AR3014 is the most complex region, with the
potential to produce M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class
flares, although it has decreased in area. AR3004 (S16) which
previously produced a X1.1 flare and several M-class flares on
the last solar rotation, is due to return around 23-May. Solar
activity is expected to be at R1 level on 23-25 May, with a slight
chance of R2-R3 levels. Several CMEs were observed, but none
are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 22-May
was mildly elevated, ranging from 451-539 km/s, and is currently
near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -5 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 22/0000UT
and 22/0640UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease to
near background levels over 23-25 May, although there is a chance
that it may remain slightly elevated due to the anticipated mild
CME impact from mid 23-May to early 24-May, from a CME first
observed on 20-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: G0
Estimated Indices 22 May : A K
Australian Region 9 33323110
Darwin 6 22322110
Learmonth 9 33323111
Alice Springs 7 32223110
Gingin 9 33224110
Canberra 7 23323100
Hobart 8 22324110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
Macquarie Island 24 12437100
Casey 11 33324111
Mawson 35 66442225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3321 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 May 12 G0
24 May 12 G0
25 May 9 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with isolated periods of G2 observed at Mawson, and an
isolated period of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 23-25 May. There
is a chance of increased geomagnetic conditions from mid 23-May
due to a possible mild CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 23-25 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 May 93
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 May 90 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
24 May 85 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 May 85 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22
May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 22-May were mostly enhanced with larger enhancements
during the day and early evening. Spread-F was observed at Hobart
during 1300-2100UT. MUFs are expected to be generally enhanced
to about 25% above predicted monthly values over 23-25 May. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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