[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 12 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 13 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2020UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-May was at R1 level, with
a M1.3 flare originating from beyond the northeast limb (N15)
at 12/2019UT, which also produced an earlier C5.9 flare. There
are five numbered regions on the solar disk, with regions 3006
(S32W31, beta-gamma) and 3007 (S20E19, gamma) being the most
complex regions. Both regions have produced several low-level
C-class flares, and have the potential to produce M-class flares.
A new region 3010 (S14E77, beta) produced both a C8.4 and C4.3
flare. No other numbered regions are currently flaring. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 13-15 May, with
a slight chance of R2 level. A prominence eruption was observed
in the H-alpha imagery at 12/1953UT over the northeast limb (N15),
resulting in a CME visible in STEREO-A imagery from 12/2053UT.
This may be connected to the aforementioned R1-level flaring
region over the northeast limb. Further analysis will be conducted
to determine if there is an Earth-directed component when more
imagery becomes available. Several additional CMEs were observed,
but none are geoeffective. The proton flux has been steadily
decreasing from an earlier slight enhancement, which did not
exceed the S1 threshold. The solar wind speed on 12-May peaked
at 378 km/s and is currently near 345 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -7 nT. Bz was intermittently
southward between 0048-0410UT, and southward between 1139-1217UT.
The solar wind is expected to be mostly near background levels
over 13-15 May, with a slight chance of mild perturbations over
13-14 May in the IMF due to glancing blows from earlier CMEs
first observed on 8-May and 10-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G0
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11202121
Darwin 5 12212121
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 11212221
Alice Springs 4 12202121
Gingin 3 11201121
Canberra 2 11101111
Hobart 3 11102210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 5 11204200
Casey 4 22101211
Mawson 12 44312222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2110 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 11 G0, slight chance of G1
14 May 11 G0, slight chance of G1
15 May 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 13-15 May, with a
slight chance of G1 conditions due to glancing blows from earlier
CMEs first observed on 8-May and 10-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 12-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 13-15 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 11
May and is current for 12-14 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-May were mostly near monthly predicted values,
to slightly enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during
night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
values to slightly enhanced during 13-15 May. Short-wave fadeouts
are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 281 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 25200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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