[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 14 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 146/100
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-May was at R0 level. There
are currently six numbered regions on the solar visible disk,
with region 3007 (S23E05, beta-gamma) being the largest and the
most complex. This region appeared to have weakened, however,
still have the potential to produce M-class flares. All other
regions remained relatively stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels on 14-16 May with a slight chance of R2
level. A prominence eruption was observed off the southwest limb
in the H-alpha and SDO imagery around 13/0900UT. Analysis suggests
it is not geoeffective. Several additional CMEs were observed,
but none are geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 13-May was
under 370 Km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field(IMF
Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was predominately
south. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near background
levels over 14-15 May with possible mild enhancements from 16
May as a coronal hole reaches geoeffective location on the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: G0
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111022
Darwin 2 11111011
Learmonth 3 11110022
Alice Springs 3 11111022
Gingin 4 10111123
Canberra 2 11011012
Hobart 3 01022012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00031011
Casey 7 23221122
Mawson 16 32212354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 3221 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 7 G0
15 May 7 G0
16 May 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 13-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 14-15 May with G1
(minor) levels possible on 16 May due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 14-16 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 11
May and is current for 12-14 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 13-May were near monthly predicted values, to
moderately enhanced. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted values to slightly enhanced during 14-16 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 17.0 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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