[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 12 09:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1649UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.6 1858UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 124/77 126/79
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-May was at R1 level, with
three M-class flares. The strongest flare was a M2.6 which originated
from beyond the southwest limb (S18) at 11/1858UT, and another
M2.2 at 11/1931UT. Regions 3006 (S29W31, beta-gamma) and 3007
(S23E31, beta-gamma) are the most complex regions, the latter
of which produced a M1.6 flare at 11/1649UT, and both having
increased magnetic complexity. Both have the potential to produce
further M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels on 12-14 May, with a slight chance of R3 level. A large
prominence eruption was observed over the southwest limb, resulting
in a CME visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 11/1848UT. Several
additional CMEs were observed, but none are geoeffective. The
proton flux has been slightly enhanced since 11/2020UT, and is
currently below the S1 threshold. The solar wind speed on 11-May
peaked at 322 km/s and is currently near 314 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was 11 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -10 nT. There
was an increase in the IMF to 11 nT at 1657UT followed by a southward-oriented
Bz which decreased to -10 nT. Bz has been southward since 1716UT.
The solar wind is expected to be mostly near background levels
over the next three days, although there may be some mild perturbations
in the IMF from late on 12-May due to glancing blows from earlier
CMEs first observed on 8-May and 10-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: G0
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11011112
Darwin 3 21001112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 11111122
Alice Springs 2 00001112
Gingin 2 -0011121
Canberra 1 00011111
Hobart 2 01011111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00120000
Casey 3 12101022
Mawson 19 43212155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 8 G0, slight chance of G1
13 May 11 G0, slight chance of G1
14 May 11 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G1 observed at Mawson in the
later part of the UT day. G0 conditions are likely for the Australian
region during 12-14 May, with a slight chance of G1 conditions
due to glancing blows from earlier CMEs first observed on 8-May
and 10-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 11-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 12-14 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 11
May and is current for 12-14 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 11-May were mostly near monthly predicted values,
to slightly enhanced. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly
predicted values to slightly enhanced during 12-14 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 26500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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