[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 10 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 11 09:31:03 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.5 1355UT probable all European
M1.0 1433UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 116/68 116/68
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10 May was at R3 level, with
an X1.5 flare at 1355 UT from region 3006. Either an unnumbered
region just east of region 3007 (S24E40) or part of 3007 was
active near the time of the X flare. Region 3006 (S29W19, beta)
has decayed in spot count and magnetic complexity. There is potential
for flaring at R1-2 levels on 11-13 May with a slight chance
of R3 level. A large filament erupted from the southwest quadrant
of the visible disc, resulting in a CME first visible in LASCO
C2 at 1048 UT which is not expected to be geoeffective. There
appear to be two CMEs from activity near the time of the X flare.
One directed southeast may just graze Earth from late on 13 May.
There appears to be a second CME at 1524 UT more to the south
but there are insufficient images to analyse. This CME may have
an Earth-directed component. The solar wind speed on 10 May peaked
at 314 km/s and is currently near 280 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-7 nT. There was an increase
in the IMF to 10 nT at 1258 UT followed by a brief decrease in
Bz to -7 nT. Bz has been mildly southward to -5 nT since 1908
UT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly near background levels
over the next three days although there may be some mild perturbations
in the IMF.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: G0
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 1 00100201
Darwin 2 11100201
Townsville 2 011-----
Learmonth 1 00100200
Alice Springs 1 00100201
Gingin 0 000-----
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 1 1100----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12100211
Mawson 7 22101034
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3421 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 8 G0
12 May 7 G0
13 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 10 May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 11-13 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 10 May with a short-wave
fadeout from the X flare probably disrupting communications in
the European region. Mostly normal propagation conditions are
expected for 11-13 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
12 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
13 May 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 9
May and is current for 9-11 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 10 May were mostly near monthly predicted values with
some daytime enhancements. Night spread F was observed at Townsville.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted values
to slightly enhanced 11-13 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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