[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 10 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 118/70 120/72
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 9-May was at R0 level,
with four low-level C-class flares. Regions 3004 (S16W81, beta),
3006 (S29W06, beta) and 3007 (S24E53, alpha) are the most active
regions, responsible for the flaring activity. There is a slight
chance of low-level M-class flares. Several large filaments are
currently visible on the solar disk. A CME was observed in the
coronagraph imagery late in the UT day at around 08/2300UT, associated
with an earlier C8.2 solar flare produced by AR3007 at 08/1938UT.
Model runs indicate that this CME is not geoeffective. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0 levels over 10-12 May, with a chance of R1. The solar wind
speed on 9-May varied between 295-322 km/s and is currently at
308 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF; Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +6 to -7 nT. Bz was briefly southward-oriented during the
period 09/0347UT to 09/0528UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be mostly near background levels over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: G0
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 3 22211100
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 4 22221101
Learmonth 5 22222110
Alice Springs 3 12211100
Gingin 3 22211010
Canberra 2 12211000
Hobart 3 12212000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 5 02323000
Casey 4 22221010
Mawson 13 34421132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3212 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 7 G0
11 May 7 G0
12 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 9-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 10-12 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 9-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 10-12 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 9
May and is current for 9-11 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 9-May were at near monthly predicted levels, to sightly
enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted levels,
to slightly enhanced over 10-12 May. Short-wave fadeouts are
possible during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list