[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 9 09:30:58 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     R0-R1		R0-R1		   R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             116/68             118/70

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 8-May was at R0 level, 
with several C-class flares. Regions 3004 (S16W66, beta) and 
3007 (S25E68, beta) are the most active regions, responsible 
for majority of the flaring activity. The strongest flare was 
a C8.2 produced by AR3007 at 08/1938UT. Several large filaments 
are currently visible on the solar disk. A filament eruption 
was observed in the H-alpha and SDO imagery at around 07/1800, 
with an associated CME observed in the LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO-A 
imagery starting at around 07/2300UT. Preliminary model runs 
indicate that this CME is not geoeffective. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed. Solar activity is expected to be at 
R0 levels over 9-11 May, with a chance of R1. The solar wind 
speed on 8-May varied between 300-360 km/s and is currently at 
300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF; Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +2 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly 
near background levels over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: G0

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21121301
      Darwin               4   21121201
      Townsville           6   22122301
      Learmonth            5   21121311
      Alice Springs        3   11121201
      Gingin               5   21111311
      Canberra             3   10121300
      Hobart               4   11121300    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   10021400
      Casey                7   33221211
      Mawson              14   42222244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1101 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     5    G0
10 May     5    G0
11 May     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 8-May. G0 conditions 
are likely for the Australian region during 9-11 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 8-May. Mostly normal 
propagation conditions are expected for 9-11 May. Short-wave 
fadeouts are possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      77
May      51
Jun      54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 May    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 8-May were 
at near monthly predicted levels, to sightly enhanced. MUFs are 
expected to be near monthly predicted levels, to slightly enhanced 
over 9-11 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    44500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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