[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 9 09:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 116/68 118/70
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 8-May was at R0 level,
with several C-class flares. Regions 3004 (S16W66, beta) and
3007 (S25E68, beta) are the most active regions, responsible
for majority of the flaring activity. The strongest flare was
a C8.2 produced by AR3007 at 08/1938UT. Several large filaments
are currently visible on the solar disk. A filament eruption
was observed in the H-alpha and SDO imagery at around 07/1800,
with an associated CME observed in the LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO-A
imagery starting at around 07/2300UT. Preliminary model runs
indicate that this CME is not geoeffective. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0 levels over 9-11 May, with a chance of R1. The solar wind
speed on 8-May varied between 300-360 km/s and is currently at
300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF; Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +2 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
near background levels over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: G0
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 5 21121301
Darwin 4 21121201
Townsville 6 22122301
Learmonth 5 21121311
Alice Springs 3 11121201
Gingin 5 21111311
Canberra 3 10121300
Hobart 4 11121300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 5 10021400
Casey 7 33221211
Mawson 14 42222244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1101 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 5 G0
10 May 5 G0
11 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 8-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 9-11 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 8-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 9-11 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 8-May were
at near monthly predicted levels, to sightly enhanced. MUFs are
expected to be near monthly predicted levels, to slightly enhanced
over 9-11 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 44500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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