[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 8 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: RO
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 116/68 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 7-May was at R0 level,
with a few C-class flares. Regions 3004 (S16W37, beta) and 3006
(S29E33, beta) are the most active regions and produced these
flaring. The strongest C3.6 flare was from AR3006. The CME first
observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 06/2148 is a far side
event. No Earth-directed CMEs observed. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0 levels with a small chance of R1 for 8-10 due to
the solar potential of AR3004 and AR3006. Solar wind speed on
6-May varied between 260-400 km/s and is currently at 260 km/s.
Peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was
5 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +1 to
-3 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to mostly near background
levels over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: G0
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Darwin 0 10100000
Townsville 2 11100002
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 4 22211101
Mawson 3 22111100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1021 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 5 GO
09 May 5 GO
10 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 7-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 8-10 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 7-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 8-10 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 7-May were
at near monthly predicted to sightly enhanced levels. The three-day
outlook (8-10 May) for MUFs to be near monthly predicted to slightly
enhanced levels. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during 8-10
May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 76600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list