[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 7 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity RO -R1 RO -R1 RO -R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 116/68
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 6-May was at R0 level,
with several C-class flares. Regions 3004 (S16W37, beta) and
3006 (S29E33, beta) are the most active regions, and produced
these flaring. The strongest C4.8 flare was from AR3004. No Earth-directed
CMEs observed. Solar activity expected to be at R0 levels with
a chance of R1 for 7-9 May. Solar wind speed on 6-May varied
between 350-500 km/s and is currently at 370 km/s. Peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 5 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -4 nT. Solar
wind speed expected to mostly near background levels over for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: GO
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11212110
Darwin 3 10211111
Townsville 4 11212111
Learmonth 4 11212120
Alice Springs 4 11212210
Gingin 4 11212120
Canberra 3 00222110
Hobart 4 00223210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 5 00323100
Casey 8 13322130
Mawson 16 12321262
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 5 G0
08 May 5 G0
09 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions observed in both the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 6-May. G0 conditions likely for
Australian region during 7-9 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal on 6-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions expected for 7-9 May. Short-wave fadeouts
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 May 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 May 75 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 6-May were
at near monthly predicted values to sightly enhanced. MUFs are
expected to be near monthly predicted values for 7-9 May, to
slightly enhanced. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during 7-9
May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 76300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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