[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 6 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1316UT possible lower European
M2.7 1410UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 5-May was at R1 level,
with two M-class flares, and several C-class flares. Regions
3004 (S16W27, beta) and 3006 (S29E43, beta) are the most active
regions, responsible for a M2.2 flare and M2.7 flare respectively.
AR3004 alone produced at least 22 C-class flares in addition
to the M-class flare, and its area has increased. Several CMEs
were observed in the available imagery, however none are geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels for 6-8 May.
The solar wind speed on 5-May varied between 308-420 km/s. The
solar wind speed is currently at 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to decrease to background levels over 6-8 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: G0
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01100101
Darwin 2 12100101
Townsville 3 02101112
Learmonth 1 11100110
Alice Springs 2 02100101
Gingin 1 11100110
Canberra 1 01100001
Hobart 2 01102100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 5 23210111
Mawson 15 33411125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2223 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 5 G0
07 May 5 G0
08 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 5-May. G0 conditions
are likely for Australia during 6-8 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
08 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 5-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 6-8 May. Short-wave fadeouts
are possible during 6-8 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 3
May and is current for 4-6 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 5-May were at near monthly predicted values, to sightly
enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 11-21 UT. MUFs are
expected to be near monthly predicted values for 6-8 May, to
slightly enhanced. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during 6-8
May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 59200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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