[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 04 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 5 09:31:18 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.3 0019UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.7 0859UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1632UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 1949UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.6 2028UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 May 06 May 07 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 138/92 145/99
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 4-May was at R2 level,
with five M-class flares, the most prominent of which was a M5.7
from AR3004 at 0859UT (S20W10). AR3004 has been identified as
the source of most of the flaring activity, with an active region
over the southeastern limb also the source of several flares,
including a M5.3 (R2 level) flare at 0019UT. Several CMEs were
observed in the available imagery, however none are geoeffective.
A prominence eruption was observed in SDO imagery at around 4/1808UT
on the southwestern limb, although no CME has been observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. Further analysis will be conducted
to determine if there is an associated CME when more imagery
becomes available. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels for 5-7 May, with a chance of R3 levels. The solar wind
speed on 4-May varied between 350-400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels over 5-7 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: G0
Estimated Indices 04 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11211001
Darwin 2 12111001
Townsville 5 22221012
Learmonth 4 21221002
Alice Springs 2 11111001
Gingin 3 21111002
Canberra 2 11211001
Hobart 4 11321001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
Macquarie Island 5 11323001
Casey 7 33311012
Mawson 26 45422136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2222 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 May 5 G0
06 May 5 G0
07 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 4-May, with mostly G0 conditions in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G1. G0 conditions are likely
for Australia during 5-7 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
07 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 4-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 5-7 May. Short-wave fadeouts
are likely during 5-7 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 May 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 3
May and is current for 4-6 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 4-May were at near monthly predicted values, to sightly
enhanced. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 11-21 UT. MUFs are
expected to be near monthly predicted values for 5-7 May, to
mildly enhanced. Short-wave fadeouts are likely during 5-7 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 53200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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