[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 03 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 4 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0753UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.1 1325UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 3-May reached R3 level,
with an impulsive X1.1 flare from an active region over the southeast
limb (S30E105 in STEREO-A imagery) at 3/1325UT. An earlier M1.3
flare (R1 level) was observed in the same active region. Several
CMEs were observed in the available imagery, however none were
determined to be geoeffective. A filament eruption was observed
in SDO and H-alpha imagery at around 3/1348UT (S40E01) near the
central meridian, although no CME has been observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. Further analysis will be conducted to determine
if there is an associated CME when more imagery becomes available.
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels for 4-6 May,
with a chance of R3 from the returning active region over the
southeast limb. The solar wind speed on 3-May varied between
380-440 km/s, and is currently around 407 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 4 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be near background levels over 4-6
May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: G0
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11113112
Darwin 4 11112112
Townsville 5 12113112
Learmonth 5 12113112
Alice Springs 4 11113002
Gingin 5 11113112
Canberra 5 12113102
Hobart 5 11123102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 7 11234101
Casey 9 33223112
Mawson 17 34212254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 5 G0
05 May 5 G0
06 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 3-May, with G0-G1 conditions in the Antarctic
region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia during 4-6 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 3-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 4-6 May. Short-wave fadeouts
are likely during 4-6 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 3-May were
at near monthly predicted values, to sightly enhanced. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart 14-21 UT. MUFs are expected to be near
monthly predicted values for 4-6 May, to mildly enhanced. Short-wave
fadeouts are likely during 4-6 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 452 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 94000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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