[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 3 09:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 113/64
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 2-May was at R0 level,
with only low-level C-class flares. There are few other solar
regions on the visible disk and these have not been flaring.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0 levels for 3-5 May, with
a chance of R1. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. A filament
eruption was observed at 2/0518UT (S35W05), although no CME has
been observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar
wind speed on 2-May varied between 430-490 km/s, and is currently
around 440 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field
strength (IMF; Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
continue to decrease to nominal levels over 3-5 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: G0
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21100011
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 2 21100011
Learmonth 2 21100021
Alice Springs 1 21000001
Gingin 3 21100121
Canberra 2 21000011
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 8 34310021
Mawson 15 43211153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 7 G0
04 May 5 G0
05 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 2-May, with G0-G1 conditions in the Antarctic
region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia during 3-5 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 2-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 3-5 May. A chance of
short-wave fadeouts are possible 3-5 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 2-May were
at monthly predicted values, to sightly enhanced. Spread-F was
observed at Hobart 11-21 UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
monthly predicted values for 3-5 May, with a slight chance of
short-wave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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