[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 23 10:31:28 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 22 Mar with a few C-class
flares. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three
days (23-25 March), with a chance of more C-class flares and
a remote chance of M-class flares. No earth-directed CME has
been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last
24 hours. The 10 MeV proton flux has returned to background levels
now after enhancement associated with 21 March non-geoeffective
CME. The solar wind parameters were mostly near nominal, speed
varied between 300 and 420 km/sec. Interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 11 nT. The north-south IMF
component (Bz) varied between -5 nT and 8 nT. Mild enhancements
in solar wind speed are possible today, UT day 23 Mar, in response
to a small equatorial coronal hole reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12202122
Darwin 6 22212122
Townsville 6 12212123
Learmonth 7 22212132
Alice Springs 5 12202122
Gingin 5 21201131
Canberra 3 11201022
Hobart 4 12201122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 11101111
Casey 12 34322132
Mawson 34 44312275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1000 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 22 March, with isolated active to minor storm
periods in the Antarctic region . Today, UT day 23 March, Australian
conditions expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with a chance of isolated active conditions, in response to arrival
of the coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected. Low chance of
shortwave fadeout.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22 Mar were
generally enhanced. Near monthly predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs
are now expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 318 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 45200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list