[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 22 10:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 21 Mar with no notable
flares. Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three
days (22-23). The active AR2965 has rotated past the west limb.
A CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 21/0600 UT is
a farside event and is not expected to impact earth. This event
has caused enhancement in the 10 MeV proton flux. The solar wind
parameters were nominal, speed varied between 290 and 330 km/sec.
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked
at 7 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -4
nT and 4nT. The solar wind is expected to be at nominal levels
today, UT day 22 March. Mild enhancements in solar wind speed
are possible from UT day 23 Mar in response to a small equatorial
coronal hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 1 10100100
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 2 10111111
Learmonth 2 10111200
Alice Springs 1 10100100
Gingin 1 10100100
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 10100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 22310100
Mawson 6 31111113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 3330 0103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 5 Quiet
23 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 21 Mar. Similar conditions are
expected for today, UT day 22 March. On UT day 23 March, Australian
conditions expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
in response to arrival of the coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21 Mar were
generally enhanced. Near monthly predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs
are now expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 16.3 p/cc Temp: 24200 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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