[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 21 10:31:16 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 20 Mar due to an isolated
C4.6 flare at 0745UT from small single spot solar region AR2971
(N16E03). A solar radio Type II sweep was reported with this
event and eastward ejecta is visible in SDO 304nm imagery with
subsequent LASCO coronagraph analysis and event modelling showing
a very slow predominately non Earth directed CME, with a very
weak shock arrival possibly (low confidence) mid 24 to early
on 25 Mar. Solar region AR2972 (S29E11) continues to grow, though
remains quiet. A small new solar region AR2973 (N19E51) was also
quiet. The solar wind parameters were nominal, speed varied between
323/286 km/sec. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength
(Bt) peaked at 10nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied
between +8 nT and -7nT. A small isolated coronal hole is visible
just west of the solar central meridian (GOES SUVI).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 23211101
Darwin 5 23211102
Townsville 6 23221102
Learmonth 4 22211201
Alice Springs 4 23111101
Gingin 3 22111101
Canberra 4 -3211001
Hobart 4 23211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 22310000
Casey 8 33321102
Mawson 18 35411105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1122 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 12 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled in the
Australian region on UT day 20 Mar, with isolated active to minor
storm periods in the Antarctic. Australian conditions expected
to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, there is a weak 27
day recurrent geomagnetic pattern for 21 Mar which may increase
activity to unsettled levels, with a possible isolated active
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 65 About 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Mar 65 About 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 65 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 19 Mar were
generally enhanced. Near monthly predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs
are now expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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